Dynamics of the focality of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the short-term using the objective regressive regression methodology in Villa Clara, Cuba

The early history of infectious diseases was characterized by sudden and unpredictable outbreaks, often of epidemic proportions. The objective of this research was to determine the short-term dynamics of Aedes aegypti breeding sites using mathematical modeling, during the period 2010–2025 in Villa Clara province, Cuba. An observational, descriptive, ecological, retrospective, and statistical study was conducted using simple random probability sampling, covering all 13 municipalities of Villa Clara province during the period 2010–2025. The sample consisted of the number of Ae. aegypti breeding sites reported by these municipalities during the 16 years analyzed, which were modeled using objective regression analysis. The months of March, June, July, October and November turned out to be those with the greatest focus, with a marked incidence in the months of July and November. Regarding the municipalities with the highest concentration for Ae. aegypti, they turned out to be Santa Clara, followed by the municipalities of Placetas, Manicaragua and Sagua la Grande. It is concluded that the presence of the Aedes aegypti mosquito species in Villa Clara province shows a short-term trend towards an increase, with almost total consistency across municipalities and throughout the year. Therefore, the entomoepidemiological risk to the entities that transmit this vector organism is also high.